It is in your best interest to have an account with all bookmakers available to you because the small ones occasionally offer significantly better odds than others. We recommend most of our early market bets be made with Bet365, because you get either the fixed price or the starting price (whichever is higher).
We recommend you take the fixed price on all our selections.
We send out The Trial Files Tips across the whole week. Blackbook previews are provided which include detailed analysis into races which investments are being made. Complete race reviews are also available in members accounts. Tips are emailed (sometimes as early as a few days before race meets) as well as SMS'd to members. All Tips are also available online in your members account as well.
This is a difficult question for us to answer because it depends on the composition of the fields. Some weeks there will be around 30 tips while weaker weeks might only have 15 tips.We will never send tips just for the sake of having a bet because we have strict confidence indicators which all tips must surpass to be sent out.
Because we send out tips every Saturday and occasionally for midweek meetings, our ROI is constantly changing. We recommend you view our results page for an up to date figure.
When a bet is recommended, the recommended stake is included. This is formed by assessing expected value (EV) against market odds. This is how to the staking strategy minimises risk and it draws upon financial theories commonly used in hedge fund management and bonds trading.
Let's break this down into several parts.
As an example, The Trial Files may price a horse at $4 (25% chance of winning), but the horse is $5 (20% chance of winning) with the bookmakers. When this situation occurs, The Trial Files may determine this to be a suitable investment. Tips are only provided when our rated price is shorter than the odds available in the market. This is the basis of punting profitably.
Now let's introduce some maths. The mathematical definition of expectation is the sum of probabilities of an outcome multiplied by the "payoff" when that outcome occurs. In the examples to follow, the payoff is the amount that you either win or lose.
If you were to bet 1 unit at $5 with a horse that we rate at $4 this means 25% of the time you will win $4, and the remaining 75% of the time you will lose your $1 investment.
Mathematically, the expectation is: (4 x 0.25) + (0.75 x -1) = 1 - .75 = 0.25. So for each unit you bet you expect to receive a profit of 0.25, or a profit on turnover of 25%. If you bet $100 a unit, on average you will receive $25 of profit on each bet. Given the number of bets we provide, and the effect of compounding, profits can grow very quickly.
Where the expectation is a positive number, the terminology is '+EV' (Positive Expected Value).
Obviously, and clearly, the better the odds you get for an event the higher your expectation. If you managed to find a bookie offering $5.50 instead of $5, your expectation would be (4.5 x 0.25) + (0.75 x -1) = 37.5%. That is a huge difference and demonstrates the importance of having access to as many bookmakers as possible and meticulously finding the best odds on offer. In addition bookies offer sign up bonuses of up to $500 which both reduce your initial risk as well as giving added impetus to your bankroll growth. Finding the best odds is included in all The Trial Files subscriptions, and we recommend signing up to the following corporate bookies so you can maximise the value of your subscription:
Obviously, however, if you bet once you aren't going to receive a profit of 25%; You will either win and receive a 400% return on your investment, or you will lose, resulting in the loss of your entire investment or a profit of -100%. As you can see, both of these outcomes are significantly different from the expectation of a profit of 25%. The varying results you get away from the expectation is called variance.
The more events you bet on (mathematically speaking an increase in sample size), the less variance there is. As the sample size increases, the actual return will trend to the expected return. This is why you will not see a return of 25% after one event, but you will start seeing it after 100 events or more.
Looking into variance another way, let's say that you and a friend toss a coin. If it comes up tails, you get $2. If it comes up heads, you need to pay your friend $1. Obviously this is a great bet for you, but you are going to lose 50% of the time. There will be stretches where heads comes up numerous times in a row and as a high percentage of a specified sample (say 8 out of 10 tosses). This is natural statistical variation and is unavoidable.
The coin example also demonstrates the importance of having a bankroll and managing it appropriately. Imagine if you only had $1 - you have a 50% chance of going bust after just one toss (and this doesn't include the probability of winning the first toss but then going bust thereafter after a run of heads that your bankroll cannot sustain) and missing out on what would be highly profitable betting situation - what a waste!
Clearly, the larger your bankroll, the smaller the chance you have of going bust. At the same time, if you bet too small a percentage of your bankroll per event you will be unnecessarily giving up potential profits without making a meaningful reduction in risk. An important concept here is that there are only a finite number of events to place a bet on. Back to the coin example; imagine you could only engage in 10 tosses. If you bet a tiny percentage of your bankroll, you could be sure you wouldn't go bust but you could also be certain that you would make little profit relative to your bankroll. The aim here is to outlay as much as possible while still removing, or greatly mitigating, the risk of going bust (depending on your risk tolerance). This is a fine balancing act and falls under the realms of a concept called maximizing '+EG' (Positive Expected Growth), and is a central tenet of astute bankroll management.
At The Trial Files, we structure our bankroll and betting amounts so that there is a minimal chance of going bust while still allowing the ability to make significant profits relative to the bankroll outlay. Essentially we have produced strategies that are optimal on the risk/return scale.
What this all means: The Trial Files investing is a long term exercise.
In the short term, variance leads to fluctuations in betting results. But in the long term the ability to pick winners and placing bets on +EV situations will ensure sustainable profits.
A bankroll is the total amount of money a punter is prepared to gamble. It is often said in gambling that you must be prepared to lose anything you bet. A bankroll is not different. Before you commence any form of gambling, you must know how much you have in your bankroll and be prepared to lose the entire amount. However, it is near-impossible to will lose your entire bankroll if you stay disciplined and follow your staking strategy.
A stake is generic unit which is used to measure how much money you place on a bet. Everyone will have a different stake which is dictated by how big their bankroll is.
The staking strategy is all about long term gains. There will be days of big wins or big losses which can make undisciplined punters alter their staking strategies but in the long term; the staking strategy delivers long term profits.
We recommend your stake to be 1% of your total bankroll. For example, if you have a $1000 bankroll, your stake should be $10.
Most professionals recalculate their stake after every bet so that their stake is always 1% of their bankroll. This ensures your risk levels are consistent regardless of whether you are having a winning or losing day.
The tips aim to take advantage of early market prices and in order for the Horse Racing Genius team to do this; we have to anticipate the weather conditions for raceday. For us to do this, we analyse all weather forecasts and current track conditions to give us an idea of what the track will be on raceday and how far out the rail might be. If ratings are very similar to the early market tips, this means our weather and track predictions have were quite accurate and thus, our form analysis has held up and the odds are still at a good price to back the horse now that the unknown factors are known.
If you have signed up to tips and ratings, we recommend you split your bankroll into two. One bankroll should be used just for tips and the other just for ratings.
When you are laying a horse, you are betting on it to lose. You are essentially reversing your role from the punter to the bookmaker. You are liable to pay out someone’s bet if the horse wins but if the horse loses, you keep the amount which was wagered.
You can lay horses on both win a place markets.
To place a lay bet in Australia, you must have an account with Betfair who operate the Australian betting exchange. On the betting exchange, punters can select a price which they want to bet on a horse and others can select a price where they want to lay the horse. When the two prices are equal, they are considered matched and both punters are liable to pay out the opposing punter.
Betfair take 5% of all winnings from matched bets so the odds appear inflated.
There are two different types of lay betting – liability laying and stake laying.
Liability Lay Example
Liability laying allows punters to limit the most they will lose from any single lay. They can control their loss, but their winnings will be dependent on what odds they lay a horse at. The lower the odds, the higher return (and risk of course).
*Betfair takes a commission on all profits. This does not include return of stake so Punter A would receive roughly $195 back if their account is set to 5% commission on profits.
** Punters B and C will get back roughly $147.50 once Betfair commission is taken out of their $50 profits.
Stake Lay Example
Stake laying generally requires a larger bankroll than liability laying.
Time and liquidity are the two biggest factors in market movement.
If a market only has a small amount of money bet on it, one big bet can drastically change the odds in the market. This can be very common in country racing bets if 90% of bets are made one horse suddenly.
While professional punters do exist as a profession, they require an extremely large bankroll to be sustainable. Unless you have a bankroll of $500,000+, you are best off keeping your day job.